
Thinking Like Historians: A Secret Weapon for Public Leaders
Strategic Thinking in Public Affairs
Strategic thinking in public affairs requires not only forecasting future developments but also reflecting on past events to understand how outcomes unfolded. This dual perspective, looking forward as strategists do and backward as historians do, is crucial for those preparing for leadership roles in government. Lawrence Freedman, in his seminal work Strategy: A History, explores the dynamic between planning and retrospection, emphasizing that strategy is not a rigid set of instructions, but a continuous process influenced by context, contingency, and human behavior (Freedman 2013). Too often, public servants approach challenges with a preferred outcome in mind, failing to consider the broader set of possibilities that might arise. By adopting a mindset that simulates hindsight before action, what could be termed a “historian’s foresight," public administrators and policy advisors can improve decision-making, anticipate unintended consequences, and respond to complexity with agility.
Practitioner Insights and Best Practices
Government practitioners who have navigated complex policy environments often stress the importance of scenario planning and red teaming... tools that mirror the historian’s capacity to reconstruct events and consider alternative outcomes. Scenario planning, as employed by the U.S. Department of Defense and intelligence agencies, involves developing multiple plausible futures to assess the resilience of strategies under various conditions (Gompert, Binnendijk, and Lin 2014). This technique requires decision-makers to suspend their preferences and instead analyze how various forces (i.e., political, economic, social, and environmental) could interact to shift trajectories.
Scenario Planning and COVID-19 Response
For example, during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) employed scenario-based modeling to anticipate how the virus might spread under different policy interventions. This approach allowed federal and state officials to weigh the impacts of lockdowns, mask mandates, and vaccination campaigns based on a range of plausible outcomes rather than a single forecast (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2020). While not all projections materialized, the mindset of exploring multiple futures helped guide resource allocation and policy timing.
Red Teaming as a Strategic Tool
Another method aligned with the historian’s foresight is red teaming. Popularized by military and intelligence communities, red teaming involves assigning a group to challenge prevailing assumptions, test plans, and identify vulnerabilities before a decision is finalized (Zenko 2015). In Kansas, the Department of Health and Environment created a red team to evaluate its pandemic response plans, uncovering gaps in communication, supply chain management, and public messaging. These findings led to revised protocols that improved the state’s readiness for subsequent waves (Kansas Department of Health and Environment 2021).
Institutionalizing After-Action Learning
Practitioners also emphasize the importance of structured post-event reviews. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), for instance, institutionalizes After-Action Reports (AARs) following major disasters. These reports not only assess what occurred but also explore what could have happened under different circumstances. By treating each event as a case study in alternative outcomes, agencies are better positioned to refine procedures and train personnel for future contingencies (FEMA 2021).
Adaptive Programming in International Development
This approach has also been adopted in international development. The U.K.’s Department for International Development (DFID), now part of the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, regularly conducts scenario reviews of failed and successful programs to understand the interplay of local politics, institutional capacity, and cultural dynamics. These reviews often lead to adaptive programming, where strategies evolve in real time instead of adhering to static plans (Wild, Booth, and Valters 2017).
The Core Lesson for Strategy
From these examples, a key lesson emerges: strategic success in government settings is less about precise prediction and more about cultivating a mindset that embraces uncertainty. By imagining that an event has already taken place, and analyzing it with the benefit of hindsight, public professionals can better anticipate the range of possible developments and respond with greater flexibility.
Key Takeaways
Adopt a historian’s foresight: Reframe upcoming decisions by imagining they have already occurred. Analyze what went right, what went wrong, and what alternative paths could have been taken. This exercise encourages consideration of multiple possibilities, reducing the risk of tunnel vision.
Use scenario planning to test strategy resilience: Develop several well-researched scenarios that reflect different future conditions. Evaluate how your strategy performs across these scenarios to identify weaknesses and adaptive levers.
Implement red teaming to challenge assumptions: Create structured opportunities for dissent and critical review. Red teams can uncover blind spots in planning and help prevent groupthink, particularly in high-stakes policy environments.
Institutionalize after-action learning: Review every major initiative or response not only to document what occurred, but to explore how events could have evolved differently. Use these reviews to inform future training, planning, and resource decisions.
Accept uncertainty as a strategic constant: Recognize that strategy involves dynamic interaction with unpredictable elements. Embracing, rather than resisting, uncertainty allows for more agile and responsive governance.
References
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2020. “COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios.” U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html.
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). 2021. COVID-19 Pandemic Response: After-Action Report. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Homeland Security.
Freedman, Lawrence. 2013. Strategy: A History. New York: Oxford University Press.
Gompert, David C., Hans Binnendijk, and Bonny Lin. 2014. Blinders, Blunders, and Wars: What America and China Can Learn. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation.
Kansas Department of Health and Environment. 2021. COVID-19 Response Review: Red Team Findings and Recommendations. Topeka, KS.
Wild, Leni, David Booth, and Craig Valters. 2017. Putting Theory into Practice: How DFID Is Doing Development Differently. London: Overseas Development Institute.
Zenko, Micah. 2015. Red Team: How to Succeed by Thinking Like the Enemy. New York: Basic Books.
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ABOUT THE ROLE This is a National Guard Title 32 Excepted Service position located at the Army Aviation Support Facility (AASF #3) in Savannah, Georgia. The Aircraft Flight Instructor is responsible for planning and implementing flight training for rated pilots and instructor pilots. The role involves conducting advanced instrument flight training, refresher courses, and mission-specific training in light fixed-wing or utility/observer helicopters. The incumbent also serves as a key advisor on aviation and ground safety, ensuring compliance with Public Law and occupational health standards, and managing accident prevention programs for the facility. This is a dual-status position requiring membership in the Georgia Army National Guard. KEY RESPONSIBILITIES - Plan and implement flight training and instruction for rated pilots and instructor pilots based on individual needs. - Conduct training flights involving instrument references, automatic direction finding equipment, and instrument landing systems. - Train, instruct, and evaluate pilots in advanced instrument flight techniques. - Conduct refresher, mission, and continuation training in light fixed-wing or utility/observer helicopters. - Advise and represent the Commander on all matters concerning aviation and ground safety. - Ensure facility conformity with Public Law regarding occupational health and safety. - Plan, organize, and supervise safety activities for all personnel assigned to the facility. - Develop, maintain, and rehearse accident and pre-accident prevention plans. - Conduct safety meetings/lectures and promote Safety Awareness and Accident Prevention Programs. - Investigate and report on alleged facility safety violations and suggestions. - Monitor aircrew proficiency in handling weapons, ammunition, and petroleum/oils/lubricants (POL). - Serve as an advisor on safety concerns for missions such as drug interdiction/eradication support. MINIMUM QUALIFICATIONS Military Requirements: - Membership in the Georgia Army National Guard is required prior to the effective date of placement. - Compatible Military Assignment: EMOS 154 Series. - Military Grades: W2 - W4. General Experience: - Competent understanding of the occupation's basic principles and concepts. - Minimum of one year on-the-job experience in the grade (or comparable military rank) immediately below the next higher level. Specialized Experience: - Working experience in civilian aviation programs, military service aviation programs, Army National Guard Aviation Support facilities, or Air National Guard Operations Groups. - Experience piloting and instructing in main-frame/military aircraft (Fixed-wing, rotary, or RPA). - At least two years of experience instructing others in a specific air-frame/military aircraft. - Experience in mission tasking, intelligence reporting, weather application, flight planning, crew briefings, and preflight inspections. PREFERRED SKILLS - Strong judgment and decision-making capabilities. - Proficiency in operation and control of military aircraft. - Expertise in safety and security protocols. - Ability to work independently and plan complex assignments. - Knowledge of Operational Risk Management. SPECIAL REQUIREMENTS - National Guard Membership: Must be a current member of the Georgia Army National Guard or eligible for immediate membership in a compatible assignment. - Uniform: Selectee will be required to wear the military uniform. - Security Clearance: Secret clearance required. - Medical Testing: Pre-placement medical testing required at government expense. - Driver's License: Valid state driver’s license required. - Selective Service: Males born after 12/31/1959 must be registered. - Probationary Period: May be required to successfully complete a probationary period. - Resume Format: Must include beginning and ending dates (month/year) for all jobs. Do not copy vacancy announcement text. SELECTION PROCESS - Application Review: Resume and supporting documentation evaluated against qualifications. - Assessment Questionnaire: Responses compared to application package to determine experience level. Overstating qualifications may result in disqualification. - Referral: Top qualified candidates referred to the selecting official. HOW TO APPLY - Visit USAJOBS.gov and search for Announcement Number GA-13006671-AR-26-229. - Complete the online application and Occupational Questionnaire. - Submit a resume showing work schedule, hours worked per week, dates of employment, and duties performed. - Application Deadline: 11:59 PM (EST) on August 7, 2026. EMPLOYMENT DETAILS - Department: Department of the Army, Army National Guard Units - Location: Savannah, GA (AASF #3, 597 North Lightening Road Building 805) - Job Type: Full-Time, Permanent (Excepted Service) - Pay Scale & Grade: GS-13 - Promotion Potential: None - Union Representation: No - Travel: Occasional travel may be required. - Telework/Remote: Not eligible.
ABOUT THE ROLE The United States Park Police (USPP), the law enforcement arm of the Department of the Interior and National Park Service, is hiring Police Officers to safeguard National Park Service icons and jurisdictional areas in the Washington Metropolitan Area. Officers are tasked with preventing, detecting, and investigating criminal activity, apprehending criminal actors, and cooperating with federal, state, and local partners. The role involves precision-based enforcement, intelligence-led operations, and rapid response capabilities. Specialty units (e.g., SWAT, K-9, Aviation, Marine Patrol) are available based on competitive selection and training completion. KEY RESPONSIBILITIES - Safeguard National Park Service icons, symbols of democracy, and other parks in the Washington Metropolitan Area. - Prevent, detect, and investigate criminal activity; pursue and ensure apprehension of criminal actors. - Cooperate with USPP members and other law enforcement agencies to enhance safety and reduce crime. MINIMUM QUALIFICATIONS Age Requirement: - Must have reached 21st birthday but not yet reached 37th birthday by the date of application. - Exceptions: Prior Federal service in a primary covered position sufficient to complete 20 years of service before age 57, or qualified veterans' preference eligibles (waives minimum age, allows higher retirement age after 20 years). Experience, Education, or Combination: - Experience: At least one year of progressively responsible experience demonstrating ability to learn/apply complex regulations and make sound judgments. Examples include police force work, military police, security guards, physical security, visitor protection, law enforcement in natural resources, or criminal investigations. Supervisory/managerial experience demonstrating independent management of critical tasks may also qualify. General Requirements: - U.S. Citizenship. - High School Graduate or GED. - Valid driver's license (Real ID). - Legally possess firearms; no felony convictions, current pending charges, or domestic violence convictions. Multiple misdemeanor convictions may result in disqualification. - Male applicants must meet Selective Service Registration requirements. PREFERRED SKILLS - Ability to work independently in high-risk environments. - Strong psychomotor skills for driving, firearms use, and self-defense. - Agility, endurance, strength, and dexterity. - Commitment to upholding the rule of law and the U.S. Constitution. SPECIAL REQUIREMENTS - Background Investigation: Subject to background investigation and favorable adjudication; must achieve and maintain a "Secret" level security clearance. - Drug Test: Must submit to and pass a pre-appointment drug test. - Medical Exam: Must pass a pre-employment medical exam. - Vision Requirements: - Distance: Corrected 20/20 or better binocularly with at least 20/40 in each eye. SELECTION PROCESS Phase I: - Written Examination: Police Officer Selection Test (POST) covering basic math, reading, and grammar. Must score 70% or better in each section. - Physical Readiness Test (PRT): Hand release push-ups, agility run, and 1.5-mile run. Must pass each event with 70% or better. - Medical Review: Completed by a Certified Medical Physician to determine medical qualification. Phase II: - Forms Screening Review and Background Investigation: Upload documents via secure drop box; virtual or in-person interview with background investigator; credit check; fingerprint check. - Qualification Review Panel: Virtual interview with panel of Force officials evaluating responses to qualification and scenario questions. Selection: - Tentative Job Offer issued to those passing Panel Interview, Background Investigation, and Medical Review. - Final Hire contingent on passing urinalysis/drug screening and full background/security investigation. HOW TO APPLY - Visit USAJOBS.gov and search for Announcement Number WO-1614-USPP-26-12983053-DE. - Complete the occupational questionnaire and upload required documents. - Required Documents: - Resume (max 2 pages, specific formatting rules apply). - College transcripts (if qualifying via education). - Veterans Preference documentation (DD-214 Member 4 copy or SF-15 if applicable). - CTAP/ICTAP documentation if applicable. - Application Deadline: 11:59 PM (EST) on December 28, 2026. - Note: This is an open/continuous announcement; applicants referred weekly. Do not submit hard-copy or email applications. EMPLOYMENT DETAILS - Department: Department of the Interior, National Park Service, United States Park Police - Location: Washington, DC - Job Type: Full-Time, Permanent (Competitive Service) - Pay Scale & Grade: SP-1 - Promotion Potential: None - Union Representation: Yes - Travel: Occasional travel may be required. - Telework/Remote: Not eligible. - Benefits: Federal benefits package including health insurance, retirement, and paid leave.
SALARY $79,891.00 – $123,072.00 Per Year (Pay Scale: GS-06 to GS-09) Specific Salary Ranges by Certification Level: - Firefighter/EMT: $77,386 – $94,592 - Firefighter/AEMT: $85,993 – $97,474 - Firefighter/Paramedic: $95,233 – $104,763 ABOUT THE ROLE The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is seeking non-supervisory Firefighters to respond to and mitigate emergency incidents, including fires, hazardous materials incidents, auto accidents, and medical emergencies. Based out of a Fire Station in the Washington, DC area, firefighters operate emergency apparatus such as engines, ladders, rescue squads, and ambulances. The role involves combating fires, vehicle extrication, technical rescue, and providing emergency medical care. A significant portion of the workday is dedicated to training, practical evolutions, and standby duties. This position requires a 5-year service commitment upon entrance on duty. Work involves strenuous physical activity and exposure to hazardous conditions. KEY RESPONSIBILITIES - Respond to and mitigate fires, Haz Mat incidents, auto accidents, and other emergencies - Drive and operate emergency apparatus (Engine/Pumper, Tower/Ladder, Rescue/Squad, Ambulance/Medic Unit) - Combat and extinguish fires and perform vehicle extrication - Conduct technical rescue operations - Provide emergency medical care to the sick or injured - Participate in daily training, practical evolutions, and standby duties for high-hazard activities - Perform administrative activities and document activities using basic computer software - Work 48-hour shifts (144-hour bi-weekly schedule) and overtime as needed - May be recalled to work during large-scale emergencies MINIMUM QUALIFICATIONS - U.S. Citizenship (dual-nationals eligible) and at least 18 years of age - High school diploma or GED - Valid driver's license - Maximum age of 37 at time of appointment (waiver available for prior Federal service in FERS-Special covered Firefighter/LEO positions) - Three (3) years of Fire and EMS experience - Certifications (must be Pro Board/IFSAC accredited, recognized by Virginia Department of Fire Programs, or National Registry/Virginia Office of EMS): - Firefighter Level I & II (NFPA 1001) - Emergency Medical Technician (EMT) - FEMA ICS 100, 200, 700, 800 - Experience as an attendant-in-charge of an ambulance or medic unit - Physically and psychologically fit; able to lift and carry 125 lbs per OSHA requirements - Must pass NFPA 1582 physical PREFERRED SKILLS - Regional Fire Academy graduation - Emergency Vehicle Operations Course, S-3 (NFPA 1451) - Driver Pump Operator (DPO) or Driver Aerial Operator (DAO) (NFPA 1002) - Fire Instructor I, Fire Officer I, or Fire Inspector I certifications - Vehicle Rescue Level 1, HTR Rope Rescue 1, or HTR Confined Space Rescue II - Hazardous Materials Technician certification - FEMA ICS 300, 400 - Airport Rescue Firefighter certification - Advanced EMT or Paramedic certification SPECIAL REQUIREMENTS - Must be physically located in the United States or its territories when submitting resume via MyLINK - Must be willing to move to the Washington, DC area - Must successfully complete thorough medical and psychological exams, polygraph interview, and comprehensive background investigation - Must obtain and maintain Sensitive Compartmented Information (SCI) security clearance - Subject to financial disclosure requirements - 5-year service commitment required before applying internally to other CIA positions - Must register for Selective Service if applicable SELECTION PROCESS - Application review via MyLINK system after expressing interest on cia.gov/careers - Evaluation based on qualifications and ability to meet minimum requirements - Comprehensive background investigation, polygraph, and medical/psychological exams HOW TO APPLY - Visit https://www.cia.gov/careers/ to read more about the position - Express interest in up to four jobs via the website - Submit resume and job rankings via MyLINK - Application Deadline: September 30, 2026 EMPLOYMENT DETAILS - Location: Washington, DC (Many vacancies) - Department: Central Intelligence Agency - Employment Type: Full-Time, Permanent - Pay Scale: GS-06 to GS-09 - Promotion Potential: None listed - Telework Eligible: No - Travel Required: Occasional - Security Clearance: Sensitive Compartmented Information (SCI) - Announcement Number: 24-12194616-7082/SEHD - Control Number: 758639900 - Benefits: Relocation expenses may be reimbursed





